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Everyday at our store I get an opportunity to speak with homeowners and contractors about how hard it is to find tradespeople. Here is my conclusion.
It’s not going to get better any time soon.
Why?
Busy is good unless you cannot capitalize. Contractors would like to expand their crews to meet demand but unfortunately one thing gets in the way.
There is a dearth of skilled workers.
Thus, every contractor I know is booked at least one year out.
When will things get better?
When demand drops.
How will this happen?
1- Most likely a drastic correction in the economy. My best guess is that supply chain issues and inflation get so out of control that the market collapses temporarily and demand for building halts.
or
2-Currently young people are seeing that they can make $50-$100/hr. in the trades. So why would they spend $100,000 to go to college? There will be a drop in college enrollment and within 4-6 years there will be a maturation of skilled workers in the trades which will allow supply to catch up with pent up demand. Once this demand is met things will begin to go back to normal and labor rates will decrease along with home valuations.
I believe a long term solution would be to offer trades training at the high school level. This could include renewable energy installation, plumbing, carpentry, landscaping, automotive, electrical, etc.
Until then be sure to plan way in advance and diversify your retirement account.
Sincerely,
Michael Friedland and the entire Lumbery Crew AKA Ents.
LUMBERY
mainewood@lumbery-me.com
www.lumbery-me.com
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